The Most Interesting Volsurface in the World, Part 2
We’re not sure if Jeff Bezos has a shot at the Most Interesting Man in the World, but AMZN certainly often has one of the
Most Interesting Volsurfaces in the World, these days.
On the the right we show C8 fitted implied vols (and market implied vols) as a function of normalized
strike for the first 10 expiries on Thursday 2018-04-27 at 15:45 EST, just before earnings are announced
after the close.
There are a lot of interesting features revealed in this surface. The first few expiries have the W-shaped
vol curves characteristic of big tech names around earnings.
Note also that on this day the weekly expiring on 2018-06-08 (i=6, shown in red) is first listed, with
only a few strikes (and small strike range) compared to the other terms.
Fitted vol in K-space for the first expiry.
The C8 fit for the first expiry has the strongest W-shape, ie the most negative ATF curvature
c2, we have ever seen!
Fitted vol in NS-space for the first expiry.
Despite the negative c2, this term does not have any butterfly arbitrage. In fact, the whole surface is
free of butterfly and calendar arbitrage. The absence of calendar arb is illustrated in the next two plots.
Total variance as function of log-moneyness, log(K/F), for the first 10 terms (the rest are “boring” and would just overcrowd
The fact that the lines don’t intersect proves that there is no calendar arbitrage.
Note that here we plot the vols of the first 10 terms across (the same) wide range of strikes, by sampling
the appropriate vol curves, rather than at the strikes listed for each term (which is often a much smaller
range, especially for the i=6 term shown in red).
The same plot, with error bars. Similar remarks as for the
AEX plots apply.
Note also the new weekly (i=6, red): the listed strikes only cover a small range on this day, but our
vol surface properly extends the vols from this range into the wings without calendar arb (easier to see
in the previous plot).
The next two plots illustrate the C8 parameter term-structure across all 17 listed terms (the x-axis is time-to-expiry in
years). In the first plot we show only the first three parameters.
Note how c2 starts as low as about -1.1. But after 3-4 months the term-structure of all (shape) parameters
is essentially flat.
Note the large error bars for s2, c2 for the i=6 term: This term has essentially only information about
the ATM vol.
Here we show the term-structure of all 8 parameters. Again, the term-structure of all (shape) parameters is flat after 3-4
Here the C8 and market implied vol-by-strike plots for a couple of the first maturities.